What is Forecast?
Forecast in logistics is the process of anticipating the future based on historical sales data, purchases, market trends, seasonality, etc. It is the foundational tool for supply chain planning, influencing everything from staff hiring to supplier purchasing levels.
Effective Forecasting Methodology
For effective forecasting, it is necessary to:
Detect Relevant Patterns
Identify the patterns most relevant to the objective you want to achieve — from seasonality to market trends.
Apply Statistical Methods
Work the data with statistical techniques so that it provides responses with a high degree of reliability.
Iterative Process
This process is iterative, and data quality is fundamental to the success of this approach.
Importance for Procurement
A good Forecast allows the company to prepare for demand peaks (e.g., back-to-school season, Christmas) and avoid excess stock (Dead Stock) during low-sales periods.
WMS and Forecast Models
Although the WMS is not a pure forecasting tool, it provides the most valuable data for Forecasting: the actual history of inbound and outbound movements. By exporting WMS data to forecast models, managers can discover precise consumption patterns and adjust procurement to ensure the warehouse always has what the customer wants.